Milan (w) vs Ternana (w) on 25 January
On January 25th, the Women’s Serie A sees a crucial encounter between Milan (w) and Ternana (w) at the iconic Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan. With both teams locked in a race for valuable league points, this match carries significant weight for their ambitions in Italy’s top-flight women’s football competition. Milan is pushing for a Champions League qualification spot, while Ternana is battling to stay clear of relegation. Expect an intense contest where every tactical decision could be the difference between success and failure.
Milan (w): Tactical Approach and Current Form
Milan (w) has been in solid form recently, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five games. Their 4-3-3 formation has become a trademark, focusing on quick ball circulation and high pressing when out of possession. The Rossonere excel in controlling the game through the middle of the park, where their midfield trio dominates possession and orchestrates attacks. Milan’s ball progression relies heavily on the technical ability of their central midfielders, notably Laura Fusetti, whose distribution and vision are key to unlocking opposition defenses. Statistically, Milan boasts an impressive average of 55% possession per game and ranks high in xG (expected goals), often creating high-quality chances through quick combinations in the final third.
In terms of individual form, Milan’s offensive threats come from their wingers, especially Valentina Giacinti, who is in scintillating form with five goals in her last five outings. However, the team will miss the presence of the suspended Giorgia Spinelli, whose defensive leadership and tactical awareness in the center of defense have been crucial. Milan’s game often revolves around high pressing in the final third, with quick turnovers leading to rapid counter-attacks. Their pressing metrics, averaging 120 pressing actions per match, showcase their commitment to disrupting the opposition’s build-up play.
Ternana (w): Tactical Approach and Current Form
Ternana (w) has had a mixed run of form with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five games. The Umbrian side primarily plays with a 4-4-2 formation, emphasizing a compact defensive shape and counter-attacking football. Their key strength lies in their organization, especially in the defensive third, where they are disciplined in blocking passing lanes and frustrating attacking sides. However, Ternana has struggled to maintain possession against stronger teams, as evidenced by their 45% average possession across recent fixtures, which places them near the bottom of the league in ball retention.
Despite their defensive resilience, Ternana’s lack of clinical finishing has hampered their ability to convert chances. They average a relatively low xG of 1.2 per match, indicating that they tend to struggle in creating high-quality opportunities. That said, forward Agnese Bonfantini remains their most dangerous player, with four goals in the past five games. The absence of midfielder Carolina Morace due to injury could significantly affect their balance, as her energy in transitioning from defense to attack has been vital to their counter-attacking system. Ternana’s ability to execute quick counters will be key in this match, especially given Milan’s aggressive high-line approach.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
In their last five encounters, Milan (w) has enjoyed a strong head-to-head record, winning four of the last five meetings with Ternana (w), including a dominant 4-0 victory earlier this season. Ternana’s only win came in a 1-0 upset in the 2021-22 campaign, but since then, Milan has established clear superiority both in terms of squad quality and tactical execution. These past results highlight a significant psychological edge for Milan, who are highly confident going into this game.
However, Ternana will be buoyed by their recent improvement in defensive organization and their capacity to frustrate more dominant teams. In the most recent meeting earlier this season, Milan’s quick and fluid style overwhelmed Ternana, but the latter will look to tighten their defensive shape and hope for an isolated moment of brilliance on the counter. This clash will be a true test of whether Ternana can break Milan’s high-pressing system and create opportunities in transition.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
1. **Giacinti vs Ternana’s Central Defense**: Milan’s star forward, Valentina Giacinti, has been in excellent form, and her movement will be crucial in exploiting Ternana’s high defensive line. Ternana’s center-backs will need to be alert and composed to prevent Giacinti from finding space behind them. Milan’s counter-attacking nature will rely heavily on Giacinti’s pace, so Ternana’s defense will be under pressure to maintain a tight marking system.
2. **Milan’s Midfield Trio vs Ternana’s Defensive Block**: Milan’s midfield dominance, especially from Fusetti and the likes of Martina Piemonte, will be tested against Ternana’s compact 4-4-2 defensive block. Milan will look to play through the middle and exploit spaces between the lines, while Ternana will need to maintain a solid defensive shape and not allow too much space for Milan’s attacking midfielders to operate. The outcome of this battle will likely decide how effective Milan’s build-up play will be.
3. **Full-backs’ Contribution**: Milan’s full-backs, especially the attacking talents of Agnese Ricchiuti and Lisa Makas, will play a pivotal role in stretching Ternana’s defensive line. Ternana’s wide midfielders must track these runs while also contributing to defensive stability. Milan’s full-backs will look to provide the width, allowing their wingers and attacking midfielders to make inside runs. Ternana’s full-backs will need to stop this overlap and prevent deliveries into the box.
Match Scenario and Prediction
Given Milan’s superior squad quality, especially in attack, they will look to dominate possession early in the match. Their fluid pressing game will put immediate pressure on Ternana’s backline, and it’s likely that Milan will enjoy the lion’s share of the ball. Ternana, on the other hand, will set up to frustrate Milan and attempt to capitalize on the occasional counter-attacking opportunity. Expect Ternana to sit deep and look for quick transitions, especially down the wings where they can exploit any potential space behind Milan’s attacking full-backs.
In terms of the final scoreline, Milan is likely to control the tempo, but Ternana will have moments of pressure. However, Milan’s attacking potency should prove too much for Ternana to handle. With Giacinti in excellent form and the tactical advantage of their press, Milan should emerge victorious, but Ternana’s resilience may see them keep the scoreline closer than expected.
**Prediction**: Milan (w) 3-1 Ternana (w). The game will likely see Milan dominate possession, with Ternana relying on counter-attacks. Milan’s xG should surpass 2.5, while Ternana’s chances will be limited but dangerous.
Final Thoughts
The outcome of this match will answer one question: Can Ternana’s defensive resilience withstand the high-pressing, attacking juggernaut that is Milan? With key players like Giacinti likely to be decisive, and Ternana missing key personnel, this clash has all the ingredients for an exciting, high-stakes encounter.
