AX Armani Milan vs Zalgiris on 22 January
On January 22nd, one of the most anticipated matchups in the Euroleague ULEB tournament will unfold as AX Armani Milan faces off against Zalgiris. This clash of titans is more than just a game; it's a decisive moment in the quest for supremacy in European basketball. With both teams jockeying for position in the standings, every possession, every defensive stop, and every tactical move will carry monumental significance. As the teams step onto the court at Mediolanum Forum in Milan, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
AX Armani Milan: Tactical Approach and Current Form
AX Armani Milan enters this matchup with a clear sense of urgency, having won 3 of their last 5 games. However, their inconsistency in recent weeks—often struggling in the final minutes—has raised concerns. Milan’s tactical setup revolves around their elite perimeter shooting and fast-break opportunities, often pushing the tempo when the opportunity arises. They thrive in transition, with a solid mix of players capable of scoring in both the half-court and off the dribble.
In the half-court, Milan relies heavily on their big men to stretch the defense. A key feature of their offense is the pick-and-roll game, with both Nicolo Melli and Kyle Hines acting as focal points in rolling to the basket or setting screens to free up shooters. Milan's shooting efficiency is impressive, with a 37% 3-point shooting rate as one of their strengths, but their field goal percentage sits at a mere 46%, showing a need for improvement on execution in clutch moments.
Defensively, Milan has often struggled to contain opponents in transition but is solid in their half-court defense. They allow 75.1 points per game and force opponents into 13 turnovers on average. However, they have struggled with defending against larger teams in the paint, where they give up a significant number of offensive rebounds. This could be a potential weakness that Zalgiris may seek to exploit.
Key Players: Milan’s offensive flow largely depends on the leadership of Sergio Rodriguez, the floor general who orchestrates the offense with his court vision. His ability to break down defenses and create open shots is invaluable. Meanwhile, the duo of Shavon Shields and Melli provides a versatile scoring threat from the perimeter and inside. Injuries to a few of their rotational players, like Troy Daniels, have hampered their depth, but the core of their roster remains potent.
Zalgiris: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Zalgiris arrives in Milan in solid form, winning 4 of their last 5 games and building momentum as they move deeper into the Euroleague season. Their tactical approach differs from Milan’s in that they focus more on disciplined, methodical play—dominating the half-court game while ensuring robust defensive structures. Zalgiris's offense is more team-oriented, often running sets that rely on sharp ball movement and off-the-ball screens to create open looks. Their average field goal percentage stands at 48%, illustrating their efficiency and ability to convert high-percentage shots.
In recent games, they have improved their outside shooting, with a 36% success rate from beyond the arc, but they prefer to control the paint. Zalgiris’s big men—particularly Joffrey Lauvergne and Edgaras Ulanovas—excel at providing interior scoring and dominating the boards. They average 36.5 rebounds per game, with a significant chunk of those coming from offensive rebounds, where they can generate second-chance points.
Defensively, Zalgiris is an elite team, allowing only 72.3 points per game and excelling in forced turnovers. Their defense is predicated on high pressure and forcing their opponents to play at a slower pace, a contrast to Milan’s fast-break style. If they can stifle Milan’s rhythm and keep the tempo controlled, they will increase their chances of success. Additionally, Zalgiris’s ability to execute on the fast break, particularly from steals, will be a key element in this contest.
Key Players: Zalgiris’s offense runs through Lauvergne in the post, while Ulanovas’s versatility makes him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenders. Marius Grigonis, their top perimeter scorer, has been in excellent form, providing crucial spacing and shooting from beyond the arc. With no significant injuries or suspensions, Zalgiris enters the game with a fully healthy roster ready to challenge Milan’s strengths.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The history of encounters between AX Armani Milan and Zalgiris in recent seasons has been a closely contested one, with each team having their fair share of victories. Over the last 5 matchups, Zalgiris has slightly edged out Milan in 3 of those encounters, often thanks to their superior defense and ability to control the paint. Their last meeting in the Euroleague saw Zalgiris dominate the boards, securing a vital win in front of their home crowd.
The psychological edge will be critical here. Milan will need to rebound from their previous loss to Zalgiris, which was a bruising affair that exposed some weaknesses in their transition defense. On the other hand, Zalgiris will aim to continue their solid performances on the road, where they have been formidable this season. The mental aspect will play a huge role, with each team looking to impose their style early on, as both squads have shown tendencies to become unsettled when the game gets out of hand.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
One of the key battles will be between Milan’s pick-and-roll offense and Zalgiris’s defensive rotation. Milan’s ability to stretch the defense with shooters like Shields and Rodriguez will be tested by Zalgiris’s disciplined defensive system. If Milan can execute clean ball movement and create mismatches, particularly with Hines in the low post, they will have a distinct advantage in the half-court.
Another crucial matchup is on the boards. Zalgiris excels at grabbing offensive rebounds and controlling the paint, an area where Milan has shown vulnerabilities. Milan’s ability to box out and limit second-chance opportunities will be a defining factor in the game. If Zalgiris can dominate the glass, it will slow down Milan’s offensive flow and keep them out of transition.
The final key battle will be in the backcourt. Sergio Rodriguez’s ability to dictate the tempo against Zalgiris’s defensive setups will be essential for Milan. If Rodriguez can control the pace and make plays for others, Milan will be able to dictate how the game unfolds. Grigonis and Ulanovas will need to rise to the occasion for Zalgiris, particularly in locking down Rodriguez and limiting Milan’s perimeter game.
Match Scenario and Prediction
This game will likely unfold at a pace determined by the defensive setups of both teams. Milan will attempt to push the tempo with fast breaks, leveraging their shooters and playmakers to get easy points in transition. Zalgiris, on the other hand, will look to grind out a more controlled game, focusing on getting the ball inside to their bigs and forcing Milan into a slower, more deliberate half-court game. The key will be whether Milan can break through Zalgiris’s defense and find success from beyond the arc while avoiding being overwhelmed on the boards.
Expect a tightly contested game with a low margin for error. The final result could come down to Milan’s ability to knock down open shots and execute in the clutch, while Zalgiris will look to exploit their size advantage and maintain their defensive discipline. If Milan can break Zalgiris’s defense early, they might come out on top, but if Zalgiris controls the glass and slows down the game, they will have the upper hand.
Prediction: AX Armani Milan 82 - 77 Zalgiris. Milan will edge out a hard-fought victory, but Zalgiris will push them all the way. Key metrics: Milan’s 3-point shooting percentage and defensive rebounds will be the defining factors.
Final Thoughts
This game will answer the question of whether AX Armani Milan can handle the defensive intensity and size of Zalgiris while staying true to their fast-paced, perimeter-oriented style. It will be a test of Milan’s mental toughness and whether they can execute under pressure. For Zalgiris, the key will be to control the paint and force Milan to play their tempo. The winner of this contest will gain a significant edge in the race for the top spots in the Euroleague, with both teams desperate to make a statement.
Who will impose their style, and who will crack under the pressure? Only time will tell.
