Bilbao vs PAOK on 13 January
On January 13th, 2026, two powerhouses of European basketball—Bilbao and PAOK—will collide in a crucial matchup in the FIBA Europe Cup. As the tournament heads into its decisive stages, both teams are looking to solidify their position in the competition. The stakes are high, and with both squads carrying the weight of their fanbases, this promises to be a fiery and intense encounter. The venue, Bilbao Arena, will set the stage for what could be a tactical masterclass and an emotionally charged battle. But beyond the passion and fervor, what will define this game is the battle for supremacy on the court—how each team adapts their strategy and exploits weaknesses in their opponent’s game plan will ultimately decide who emerges victorious.
Bilbao: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Bilbao enters this game in strong form, having won four out of their last five contests. The Spanish side plays a dynamic and fast-paced style of basketball, with a focus on ball movement and perimeter shooting. They are particularly efficient in transition, utilizing their quick guard play to convert fast breaks into easy points. This is complemented by their strong offensive rebounding presence, which allows them to extend possessions and create second-chance opportunities. They rank in the top 5 for offensive rebounds per game, which has been a crucial factor in their recent success. However, their primary strength lies in their three-point shooting, with a shooting percentage of 38.7% from beyond the arc—a key part of their offensive scheme. On defense, Bilbao is known for their aggressive trapping and full-court press, often forcing turnovers and creating havoc in the passing lanes. They thrive in forcing opponents into mistakes, which feeds their transition game. However, their vulnerability lies in their interior defense, where they can occasionally struggle against physical teams that pound the paint. Their recent wins have been built on high-tempo, free-flowing offenses, but against teams that slow the pace and dominate the paint, Bilbao has been more susceptible. Key player to watch: Center Rokas Giedraitis, who has been in excellent form recently, contributing both as a scorer and a facilitator in the paint. His ability to stretch the floor with his mid-range game and set up plays in the half-court will be crucial in breaking down PAOK's defensive structure. His presence in the post will also be important in terms of rebounding. Injury/Suspension update: Bilbao will have a full squad available, with no major injuries affecting their lineup. This gives them a clear advantage in terms of depth and tactical flexibility.
PAOK: Tactical Approach and Current Form
PAOK, on the other hand, has had a mixed run of results, winning three of their last five games. The Greek side's style is much more structured, preferring to grind out victories with solid defensive sets and a slower pace of play. Their half-court offense is built around their sharp shooting and pick-and-roll schemes, with a focus on getting high-percentage shots for their guards and wings. PAOK’s three-point shooting percentage is slightly lower than Bilbao’s, standing at 34.9%, but their strength lies in their ability to control the tempo of the game and dictate matchups. Defensively, PAOK is a formidable unit, with one of the best field-goal defense percentages in the league. They excel in switching defensive schemes, whether it’s man-to-man or zone defense, keeping opponents off balance. They also rank highly in blocks, averaging 5.2 per game, with their center Vassilis Kavvadas providing a strong deterrent in the paint. However, PAOK's slow tempo can sometimes work against them, as they lack the depth and speed to recover from a fast-paced onslaught. Key player to watch: Forward Alexandros Nikolaidis, who has been a consistent scorer and plays a pivotal role in PAOK's pick-and-roll offense. His ability to make quick decisions and exploit mismatches will be critical against Bilbao's defense. Nikolaidis' experience and clutch scoring have made him a key player for PAOK in tight situations. Injury/Suspension update: PAOK is expected to be without one of their key reserves, Leonidas Kotsiris, who is sidelined with a knee issue. While not a starter, Kotsiris’ absence could affect PAOK's depth, particularly in terms of defensive rotations and rebounding.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The last few encounters between these two teams have been highly competitive, with Bilbao holding a slight edge over PAOK. In their most recent clash, Bilbao emerged victorious in a nail-biting 87-82 win, with their superior three-point shooting proving to be the difference-maker. PAOK had managed to keep the game close by dominating the boards and controlling the tempo, but they couldn't match Bilbao’s firepower from deep. Historically, the contests between these two have been tightly contested, with each team having its moments of dominance. What stands out in these games is the way Bilbao’s speed and shooting contrasts with PAOK’s defensive resolve and controlled pace. Psychologically, Bilbao holds the upper hand, as their aggressive style of play has historically unsettled PAOK. However, PAOK's experience and ability to handle high-pressure situations—especially in close games—means they should not be written off. The mental aspect of this matchup will be just as important as the physical execution.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
The key battle will be the matchups between the two frontcourts—Bilbao's versatile forwards and PAOK’s imposing big men. First, the center position will be critical: Rokas Giedraitis (Bilbao) vs. Vassilis Kavvadas (PAOK). Giedraitis’ ability to stretch the floor will force Kavvadas to chase him out to the perimeter, potentially creating lanes for Bilbao’s guards to penetrate. On the other hand, Kavvadas’ presence in the paint will challenge Giedraitis and his teammates to match his physicality. The second key battle will be in the backcourt, where PAOK’s guards—especially Alexandros Nikolaidis—will be tasked with handling Bilbao’s fast-paced transition game. If PAOK can slow down the tempo and prevent Bilbao from running, they will have a much better chance of controlling the game. The guard matchup between Bilbao’s Isaac Bonga and PAOK’s Yannis Mavrokefalidis will also be vital in determining who can dictate the flow of play.
Match Scenario and Prediction
Given the tactical styles and key players involved, the most likely scenario is a high-tempo game from Bilbao, where they will attempt to push the ball in transition and rely on their perimeter shooting to break down PAOK’s defense. PAOK will try to control the tempo, slow the game down, and exploit their physicality in the paint. While Bilbao’s ability to score from outside could give them an edge, PAOK’s defensive structure and composure in close games will keep them competitive. Prediction: Bilbao to win by 5-7 points, with a total of over 160 points. Bilbao’s three-point shooting and transition game should prove too much for PAOK, but the Greek team will keep it close with their defense and physicality. Look for a high number of turnovers from both teams as they look to capitalize on each other’s mistakes.
Final Thoughts
This game will come down to tempo. Can PAOK impose their controlled, slow style and make this a battle of attrition? Or will Bilbao’s speed and shooting prove to be too much for PAOK to handle? With key matchups in both the front and backcourt, the team that can execute their game plan most effectively will come out on top. The question is: Can PAOK disrupt Bilbao's rhythm and control the pace, or will Bilbao continue to run riot on their way to another vital win?
