Lokomotiv Moscow vs Chengdu Rongcheng on 20 January
On January 20th, the football world turns its eyes to a thrilling friendly match between Lokomotiv Moscow and Chengdu Rongcheng in the "Friendly Games. Russian Clubs" tournament. While friendly in nature, this clash provides an excellent opportunity to see how two teams from different corners of the globe approach the beautiful game, with contrasting styles and strategic setups. For Lokomotiv Moscow, it's a chance to sharpen their competitive edge ahead of the Russian Premier League's return, while Chengdu Rongcheng looks to solidify their position in Chinese football. With pride and tactical superiority on the line, this encounter promises high drama and footballing intrigue.
Lokomotiv Moscow: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Lokomotiv Moscow enters this fixture with a solid recent record, having won 3 of their last 5 matches. Their form reflects a balanced approach, with an emphasis on defensive solidity and quick transitions to exploit the space left by their opponents. Their most recent form has been shaped by a pragmatic 4-2-3-1 setup that utilizes wide play through their wingers and relies on a strong midfield engine. Central to their tactics is the experienced Russian international, Aleksei Miranchuk, who excels in carrying the ball forward and creating space for others. With an xG (Expected Goals) of 1.45 in their last five fixtures, they have proven capable of generating quality chances from both set pieces and open play.
One of the primary features of their style is the pressing game, which often sees their forwards and midfielders high up the pitch, trying to disrupt the opponent’s buildup play. Lokomotiv has been excellent in regaining possession quickly, with an average of 16 pressing actions per match, a statistic that highlights their aggressive nature when out of possession. Their possession in the final third stands at 56%, underscoring their ability to dominate offensive areas.
Key players include their captain, Grzegorz Krychowiak, whose combative presence in midfield provides a solid foundation for the attacking players to thrive. However, Lokomotiv will be without their star forward, Anton Miranchuk, who is sidelined with an injury. His absence could affect their ability to break down compact defenses, and it will be up to the likes of Jefferson Farfán and the attacking midfielders to pick up the slack.
Chengdu Rongcheng: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Chengdu Rongcheng comes into this match with a somewhat less polished record, having won just 2 of their last 5 matches. However, their performances have often been marked by a tactical discipline that allows them to stay competitive against more established teams. Operating in a 4-3-3 system, their approach is built around a solid defensive line and a midfield trio that looks to control the ball and dictate tempo. With an xG of 1.2 in recent games, Chengdu’s focus is on maintaining possession and creating quick overloads on the wings. Their game revolves around stretching opponents wide, particularly using their fast wingers to deliver crosses into the box.
Their defensive shape has been generally compact, with their full-backs providing width while the central defenders remain disciplined in blocking passing lanes and intercepting through balls. Despite this, they have struggled to defend set-pieces effectively, a weakness Lokomotiv could exploit, given their aerial prowess and physicality. In terms of offensive threats, Chengdu will rely on their talismanic forward, Lucas, whose pace and finishing ability have been crucial to their recent victories. He has an impressive 0.4 goals per match in his last five outings.
However, Chengdu has been struggling with injuries, particularly in the midfield, where one of their most influential players, Xu Yang, is unavailable. His absence could affect their ability to press and win the ball back high up the pitch, leaving them vulnerable in transition. In his place, Chengdu will likely rely on youngster Zhang Wei, who has shown promise but lacks the experience of Yang.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
These two teams have faced off only once in recent years, with Lokomotiv Moscow coming out on top in a 2-1 victory in a previous friendly encounter. This match was characterized by Lokomotiv's high pressing game and clinical finishing, while Chengdu showed flashes of attacking potential but struggled with defensive organization. Given the disparity in experience between the Russian side and their Chinese counterparts, Lokomotiv has historically been the more dominant side in such encounters. However, Chengdu will be motivated to turn the tide and show that they can compete with the best of Russian football.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
The most crucial battle will take place on the flanks. Lokomotiv’s wingers, particularly the skillful Rifat Zhemaletdinov, will be tasked with exploiting Chengdu's weaker side in defense. Zhemaletdinov’s pace and dribbling will be essential in isolating Chengdu's right-back, who has shown vulnerability in one-on-one situations. This battle could decide much of the game's attacking flow, with Lokomotiv looking to stretch the Chinese defense and create opportunities for their central strikers.
Another critical area of the pitch will be the midfield. With Krychowiak missing his regular partner in midfield, the responsibility will fall to Dmitri Barinov and the creative talents of Maxim Nenakhov. If they can dominate possession and disrupt Chengdu’s attempts to control the tempo, Lokomotiv will be able to dictate the flow of the match. Conversely, Chengdu will rely on their midfielders to stifle the Russian attack, and how they cope with the pressing of Lokomotiv will likely determine their success in this encounter.
Match Scenario and Prediction
The match is expected to be a highly tactical affair, with both teams vying for control of the midfield. Lokomotiv's superior pressing game and attacking threat on the flanks will likely give them the edge, particularly given Chengdu's defensive fragility. Lokomotiv's ability to win possession in dangerous areas and exploit Chengdu’s lack of defensive discipline should lead them to a comfortable victory.
We anticipate Lokomotiv to dominate possession (around 55-60%) and generate several chances from set-pieces and wide areas. Chengdu, however, will look to hit on the counter-attack, relying on Lucas to exploit any defensive lapses from Lokomotiv. In terms of statistics, Lokomotiv is expected to win the possession battle and register more pressing actions. They will likely have more corners and shots on goal, with an xG above 1.5. Chengdu, despite their weaknesses, will create one or two opportunities, but their finishing will be key to determining whether they can cause an upset.
Prediction: Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 Chengdu Rongcheng.
Final Thoughts
This match will answer whether Chengdu Rongcheng has the tactical maturity to compete with European sides or whether Lokomotiv Moscow's experience and pressing game will simply be too much for them. Lokomotiv’s defensive solidity and attacking transitions look set to secure them the win, but Chengdu’s resilience could make this a more competitive fixture than anticipated. The clash between both teams' contrasting tactical philosophies will be fascinating to witness.
