AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior on January 21
The Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior on January 21 promises to be a thrilling encounter that will have significant ramifications for both sides. As the Dutch league continues to heat up in the race for European places, this match will serve as a test of AZ Alkmaar's title ambitions and Excelsior's resilience in their fight for survival. The stakes couldn't be higher, with both teams battling to fulfill their respective goals, and the stage is set for a match filled with tactical nuance and intense competition.
AZ Alkmaar: Tactical Approach and Current Form
AZ Alkmaar enters this match in strong form, sitting comfortably in the upper half of the Eredivisie standings and only a few points behind the league leaders. In their last five matches, they have shown impressive attacking flair and defensive solidity, registering four wins and a single draw. Key to their success is their 4-3-3 formation, which allows them to control possession, dictate tempo, and attack with pace through wide areas. Their pass accuracy stands at 85% in recent games, a testament to their crisp, short passing game that is key to their build-up play.
In attack, AZ Alkmaar thrives on creating chances through intricate build-up play and quick combinations in the final third. Their average possession in the opponent’s half is among the highest in the league, sitting at 55%, showing their ability to control and dominate games. With an xG (expected goals) of 1.8 per match in their last five, they have proven to be a lethal force going forward, with a tendency to exploit spaces on the wings.
One player who will be pivotal for AZ Alkmaar is striker Vangelis Pavlidis, whose ability to drop deep and link play with the midfield makes him a constant threat. Pavlidis has scored three goals in his last five matches, and his link-up play with wingers such as Jesper Karlsson will be crucial in breaking down Excelsior's defense. Defensively, AZ Alkmaar has shown resilience, with a strong pressing game that has led to an average of 16 successful pressing actions per match. However, they will need to ensure they remain compact at the back, as their full-backs often push forward, leaving space behind them.
However, AZ Alkmaar will be missing central defender Bruno Martins Indi due to a suspension. His absence could weaken their defensive line, making it even more important for their midfield to support in defensive transitions.
Excelsior: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Excelsior enters this game under significant pressure, sitting near the bottom of the Eredivisie table and desperately needing points to climb away from the relegation zone. They have struggled in their last five games, recording just one win, one draw, and three losses. Their primary tactical setup is a 4-2-3-1 formation that looks to absorb pressure and hit on the counter. Excelsior averages just 42% possession in their matches, preferring to sit deep and spring forward quickly when they win the ball.
One of Excelsior's strengths lies in their ability to create set-piece opportunities, as evidenced by their 4.2 corners per match on average. They will look to capitalize on AZ Alkmaar's potential vulnerability from crosses, with players like Redouan El Yaakoubi and Juninho Bacuna capable of delivering dangerous balls into the box. Their pressing actions are limited, averaging just 8.5 successful presses per game, which indicates their focus on defending deep and limiting space for the opposition.
Key to Excelsior’s survival hopes will be their counter-attacking play, led by forward Nana Ampomah, whose pace and directness on the ball provide them with an outlet in transition. Ampomah's ability to stretch the AZ defense will be crucial in exploiting the space left behind when their full-backs push forward. However, Excelsior has struggled in front of goal, with an xG of just 0.9 per match in their last five games. They will need to be more clinical to take any chances that come their way, especially against a team as potent as AZ Alkmaar.
Excelsior's defensive issues will also be a concern heading into this match. They have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match in their last five games, highlighting the struggles they face in terms of defensive stability. If they are to stand any chance against AZ Alkmaar, they must tighten up at the back and avoid giving away easy chances.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
Historically, AZ Alkmaar has been dominant in their encounters with Excelsior. In their last five meetings, AZ Alkmaar has won four times, with Excelsior claiming just one victory. The most recent meeting in October 2022 saw AZ Alkmaar run out 3-0 winners at home, with their superior quality and tactical flexibility on full display. However, Excelsior will take some comfort in the fact that they managed a 1-1 draw in their last trip to Alkmaar in 2021, proving that they are capable of causing problems on the road.
Psychologically, AZ Alkmaar will enter the match as heavy favorites, and while they will be looking to maintain their push for European spots, Excelsior's desperation for points could inspire a resilient performance. The challenge for Excelsior is breaking through AZ Alkmaar's pressing game and dealing with their attacking width.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
One of the most decisive battles will take place on the wings. Jesper Karlsson, AZ Alkmaar's dynamic winger, is in fantastic form and will be up against Excelsior's left-back, Milan Massop. Karlsson's dribbling ability, combined with his quick link-up play with Pavlidis, could prove too much for Massop, who will need support from his teammates to contain the danger. Excelsior's right-back will also have to deal with the overlapping runs of AZ Alkmaar's left-back, who will be looking to exploit the space behind Massop.
Another critical area will be the midfield battle, where AZ Alkmaar's Jordy Clasie will face off against Excelsior's 18-year-old prodigy, Fynn Hufnagel. Clasie’s experience and passing range will be key in dictating the tempo of the game, while Hufnagel will need to press aggressively and break up AZ's build-up play. This duel will be pivotal in determining which team dominates possession and has the upper hand in dictating the rhythm of the game.
Match Scenario and Prediction
Given the form and quality of AZ Alkmaar, they will likely dominate possession and put Excelsior under considerable pressure. Expect them to play a high-tempo game, pressing aggressively when out of possession and looking to exploit the space in wide areas. Excelsior, on the other hand, will focus on defending deep and hitting on the counter, with Ampomah’s pace being their best weapon in transition.
AZ Alkmaar should be able to break down Excelsior’s defense, but it won’t be easy. Excelsior will put up a fight, especially considering their fight for survival, but AZ's superior quality should shine through. The most likely scenario is a 2-0 or 3-1 victory for AZ Alkmaar, with the home side controlling the majority of the game, creating numerous chances, and eventually wearing down their opponents.
Final Thoughts
This match will be a test of AZ Alkmaar’s credentials in the title race and a battle for survival for Excelsior. While AZ Alkmaar has the quality to win, they must be wary of Excelsior’s potential to exploit their defensive weaknesses. Expect a tactical battle that will see AZ Alkmaar dominate possession, but it will be their ability to break down a stubborn Excelsior defense that will decide the outcome.
Will AZ Alkmaar continue their march toward European football, or will Excelsior pull off a shock result in their battle for survival? This match promises to answer that question in dramatic fashion.
