Texas State (stud) vs Southern Mississippi (stud) on 18 January
The NCAA tournament heats up as Texas State (stud) faces Southern Mississippi (stud) on January 18, 2026, in a thrilling basketball clash. Both teams come into this game with their eyes on securing a crucial victory that could shape their paths in the tournament. With so much at stake, expect an intense battle on the court. The game will take place at a neutral venue, ensuring a level playing field for both teams.
Texas State (stud): Tactical Approach and Current Form
Texas State (stud) enters this matchup with a solid recent record, boasting three wins in their last five games. Their tactical approach revolves around a fast-paced offense, often pushing the tempo in transition to take advantage of early opportunities. With a strong emphasis on perimeter shooting, Texas State ranks highly in three-point percentage (38.1%) and will likely continue to exploit this weapon against Southern Mississippi's defense. Additionally, their offensive rebounding has been impressive, allowing them to maintain possessions and keep the pressure on opposing defenses.
The team's engine is their star point guard, who has averaged 7.6 assists over the last five games, creating offense for both himself and his teammates. A key player to watch is their center, whose rim protection has been vital in shutting down opposing post plays. However, their main weakness could be turnovers, as they rank in the bottom half of the NCAA in turnover margin. Any mistakes in ball control will be critical against a fast defensive team like Southern Mississippi.
Southern Mississippi (stud): Tactical Approach and Current Form
Southern Mississippi (stud) has been in top form recently, winning four of their last five games. Known for their balanced offense, they excel in half-court sets, moving the ball quickly to find open shooters or cutters to the basket. Southern Mississippi has one of the best field-goal percentages in the league (47.4%), which highlights their disciplined approach on offense. They also do a great job of drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line, where they convert at an efficient 75% rate.
Their primary scoring threat is their shooting guard, who has been on fire, averaging 20.4 points per game over the past five contests. Defensively, they rely on their versatile forwards to disrupt passing lanes and contest shots at the rim. However, their vulnerability lies in their three-point defense, where they struggle to close out on shooters, giving up 37.2% from beyond the arc. This is an area that Texas State could look to exploit.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The last three encounters between these two teams have been tightly contested, with Texas State winning two of the three games by a combined 12 points. The matches have typically been high-scoring affairs, with both teams averaging over 75 points per game in these head-to-head matchups. Southern Mississippi has shown resilience, but their inability to contain Texas State’s shooters has been a recurring issue. Expect another fast-paced, high-intensity game, with the result likely to hinge on which team can control the pace and limit turnovers.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
One of the most intriguing battles will be the one between Texas State’s center and Southern Mississippi's forwards. Texas State’s center has been dominant on the defensive end, but Southern Mississippi’s forwards possess the agility to stretch the floor and pull defenders out of the paint. How these matchups play out in the paint will likely dictate which team controls the rebounding battle.
Another crucial battle will be the point guard matchup. Texas State’s point guard excels in creating opportunities for his teammates, but Southern Mississippi’s point guard is known for his clutch playmaking. This head-to-head could decide the tempo of the game, with each team needing its floor general to dictate offensive flow and decision-making.
Match Scenario and Prediction
This game is likely to be a high-scoring, fast-paced affair, with both teams looking to push the tempo and capitalize on fast-break opportunities. Texas State will likely try to exploit Southern Mississippi's three-point defense, while Southern Mississippi will look to control the paint and make efficient shots in half-court sets. The key factors will be Texas State's ability to limit turnovers and Southern Mississippi's ability to close out on shooters. Given their superior field-goal percentage and ability to control the game in the paint, Southern Mississippi is slightly favored in this matchup.
Prediction: Southern Mississippi wins by 5-7 points, with a total score likely to be over 160. Key stats to watch will be turnovers, three-point shooting percentage, and offensive rebounds.
Final Thoughts
This game will provide an intriguing tactical matchup between two teams with different playing styles. Texas State will need to maximize their perimeter shooting and limit mistakes, while Southern Mississippi will rely on their efficient offense and ability to dominate the paint. Ultimately, Southern Mississippi’s balance and ability to execute in critical moments will be the deciding factor. Will Texas State’s fast-paced style overpower Southern Mississippi, or will the Golden Eagles prove their superiority in a slower, more controlled game?
