Atletico Madrid vs Alaves on January 18
On January 18, Atletico Madrid will host Alaves in a crucial Primera Division match at the Wanda Metropolitano. Both teams are fighting for different objectives in the league — Atletico, aiming for a top-four finish and a Champions League spot, while Alaves is striving to avoid relegation. The stakes couldn't be higher for both sides, as every point is vital in their respective battles. The weather forecast predicts mild conditions, ideal for a fast-paced and technical game on the field.
Atletico Madrid: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Atletico Madrid has shown a solid but inconsistent run of form in their last five games, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss. They have largely stuck to Diego Simeone's signature 4-4-2 formation, emphasizing defensive solidity and rapid counter-attacks. Atletico's possession in the final third is relatively high (around 60%), but they prefer to play a direct style, often bypassing midfield to utilize the pace of their wingers and strikers.
Key metrics that define Atletico’s style include a pass accuracy of 82% and an average of 14 shots per game, with 5 on target. Their xG (expected goals) over the last five matches stands at 1.9 per game, reflecting their clinical edge in front of goal. In defense, Atletico has been solid, conceding only 0.8 goals per match, underpinned by the excellent performances of center-backs Savic and Gimenez.
Atletico’s main engine in the midfield is Koke, whose passing range and intelligence help transition from defense to attack. Antoine Griezmann has been in excellent form, contributing both goals and assists. However, Atletico will be without their star forward Joao Felix, who is sidelined with a minor injury. This could limit their offensive options, and the onus will be on Griezmann to lead the attack.
Alaves: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Alaves enters this match struggling with form, having won just one of their last five fixtures. Their 4-2-3-1 formation has looked disjointed at times, with defensive lapses costing them vital points. Alaves prefers to play a compact defensive game, often sitting deep and absorbing pressure before attempting quick transitions, primarily through the wings. They average 46% possession but manage only 9 shots per match, with 3 on target, indicating their lack of attacking firepower.
Alaves' xG stands at 0.8 per game over the last five matches, which reflects their struggles in creating high-quality chances. Their defensive metrics are poor, conceding 1.7 goals per game, and they’ve struggled to cope with pressure from higher-ranked teams. The team's defensive strategy will rely heavily on experienced players like Victor Laguardia and the goalkeeper Fernando Pacheco, whose form has been a bright spot amidst a turbulent season.
Key to Alaves’ survival in this match will be the performance of their creative midfielder Luis Rioja, who provides much of their attacking threat. However, Alaves will miss forward Edgar Mendez, who has been a vital part of their counter-attacks. This could see them struggle for incisive plays up front, particularly in a match where Atletico’s defensive pressure is likely to be overwhelming.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
In their last five encounters, Atletico Madrid has won four times, with Alaves claiming a solitary victory. The most recent clash between these two teams ended in a 2-0 win for Atletico, showcasing their dominance in the match. The psychological edge clearly lies with the Madrid-based side, given their superior league standing and overall quality. Alaves, however, will hope to leverage their underdog status and attempt to frustrate Atletico with their compact defensive shape and counter-attacks.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
One of the most intriguing matchups will be the battle between Atletico's right-back, Kieran Trippier, and Alaves’ left-winger, Luis Rioja. Trippier is known for his attacking runs and crossing ability, but Rioja's pace and dribbling could exploit any defensive gaps. If Rioja can isolate Trippier one-on-one, he might provide Alaves with an outlet to create dangerous situations on the counter.
Another key area will be Atletico's midfield dominance, where Koke’s playmaking will be crucial. Alaves' midfield duo, especially Tomas Pina, will need to disrupt Koke’s rhythm to prevent Atletico from controlling the tempo. If Alaves cannot break up Atletico's build-up play, it will be difficult for them to launch effective counter-attacks.
Match Scenario and Prediction
Atletico Madrid will likely control possession and look to break Alaves down with their direct attacking play. Alaves will sit deep and look to hit on the counter, but their lack of attacking depth without Mendez will make it difficult for them to sustain pressure on Atletico's defense. The most likely scenario is that Atletico will dominate the match, creating numerous chances through their wingers and central midfielders. A 2-0 or 3-1 victory for Atletico is a realistic prediction, with Griezmann playing a decisive role in securing the points for his side. In terms of betting, Atletico to win with a total over 2.5 goals seems likely.
Final Thoughts
Atletico Madrid will enter this match as heavy favorites, with their superior tactical setup and firepower in attack. Alaves, on the other hand, faces an uphill battle, with key injuries and a lack of form. This match will test Atletico’s ability to break down a well-organized defense, while Alaves must find a way to disrupt Atletico's attacking rhythm. Can Alaves pull off an upset, or will Atletico's quality shine through? Only time will tell.
