Slovenia vs Italy on 27 June
The upcoming friendly between Slovenia and Italy on 27 June in Celje is far more than a summer exhibition; it represents the final critical step in preparation for the decisive World Cup qualifiers in July. For the Azzurri, this match offers a last opportunity to fine-tune rotations and solidify team chemistry before facing Iceland and Lithuania, with a spot at the 2027 World Cup hanging in the balance. The atmosphere inside the Zlatorog Arena is expected to be intense, as the home crowd will be eager to see their team take on a traditional rival, even without its biggest star. Since the game will be played indoors, weather conditions will not be a factor, allowing both teams to focus purely on athletic performance and tactical execution.
Slovenia: Form and Analysis
The narrative surrounding this Slovenian team has shifted dramatically following the confirmation that Luka Dončić will not suit up due to personal commitments. His absence forces the squad to adapt to a new reality, placing significant responsibility on a group of seasoned professionals and emerging talents who must now prove their capability without their primary offensive engine. In Dončić’s absence, the burden of playmaking and leadership will likely fall on veterans like Klemen Prepelič, renowned for his deadly three-point shooting, and Edo Murić, whose experience and versatility are vital for team cohesion. The roster blends EuroLeague-caliber players with promising youngsters, all eager to seize the opportunity and make their mark on the international stage.
While Slovenia’s recent form heading into this fixture is difficult to assess due to limited preparatory games, the challenge they face is clear. They must forge new offensive identities and rely on collective effort to compensate for the loss of a player who was the focal point of every strategic plan. The absence of Dončić also impacts their defensive schemes, as his rebounding and ability to initiate fast breaks will be sorely missed. Nonetheless, the core of this team has enough international experience to remain competitive, provided they can generate consistent scoring from multiple sources and maintain defensive discipline throughout the forty minutes.
Italy: Form and Analysis
Italy enter this fixture with considerable momentum, having just dismantled Croatia 103-91 in Gorizia. That performance showcased the team’s depth and offensive potency, highlighted by a breakout game from Tommaso Baldasso, who erupted for 29 points on 7-of-11 shooting from beyond the arc. The Azzurri’s offense looked fluid and well-balanced, demonstrating a versatility that will pose a serious threat to the Slovenian defense. This is a squad in excellent form, on the verge of completing its preparations under the guidance of coach Marco Ramondino, who continues to stand in for the absent Luca Banchi.
The roster has been trimmed to a formidable twelve-man unit, featuring notable inclusions such as Nico Mannion, Giampaolo Ricci, Amedeo Tessitori, and Luca Severini. These additions bring immense depth and quality, strengthening the team’s defensive capabilities and rebounding, which will be essential against a physical Slovenian frontcourt. The Azzurri are brimming with confidence, with a fluid offense and a deep rotation that allows them to apply aggressive defensive pressure for the entire forty minutes. Their ability to maintain a high tempo and exploit mismatches will be key, especially given Slovenia’s reliance on a reshuffled lineup.
Head-to-Head History
The historical record between these two nations paints a picture of Slovenian dominance. This will be the 26th meeting since 1992, and Slovenia holds a commanding lead with fifteen victories to Italy’s nine. The recent history, however, is where the real story lies. The Azzurri have struggled mightily against their neighbors, with their last victory in a major tournament dating back to the 2006 World Championship, a narrow 80-76 win. Since then, Slovenia has won three consecutive encounters at the European Championships, in 2003, 2007, and 2013.
Most recently, Slovenia triumphed 84-77 in the EuroBasket 2025 Round of 16, further extending their psychological grip over this fixture. That game was characterized by Slovenia’s superior execution in clutch moments and their ability to contain Italy’s perimeter shooters. The pattern is unmistakable: Slovenia has been a consistent nemesis for Italy on the big stage, often leveraging superior individual talent and tactical discipline. However, this upcoming match presents a dramatically different context, with the absence of Dončić potentially overturning the historical balance.
Match Prediction
This contest presents a fascinating clash of styles and circumstances. While the head-to-head history and the venue suggest a competitive affair, the unprecedented context of this match heavily favors the visitors. Italy arrive with a complete roster, riding a wave of offensive confidence from a high-scoring win, and they function as a cohesive unit with a clear objective. Slovenia, in stark contrast, are without their foundational player, a void that cannot be filled in such a short period. The Azzurri’s defense, which ranked among the best at EuroBasket 2025, will be able to apply relentless pressure on Slovenia’s guards without the threat of a generational talent breaking down their schemes.
Offensively, Italy possess multiple threats, including Baldasso and Matteo Spagnolo, while the depth provided by Mannion and Tessitori will allow them to control the tempo and exploit mismatches. Slovenia will rely heavily on Prepelič and Murić to generate offense, but the absence of a primary creator is likely to lead to stagnant possessions and forced shots. The home side’s historical advantage is likely to be nullified by the sheer disparity in roster completeness and current form. Expect Italy to dominate the glass and force Slovenia into low-percentage attempts, gradually pulling away in the second half.
Final View
Ultimately, this game is a test of resilience for Slovenia and a measure of Italy’s evolution as a team. The absence of Dončić transforms what could have been an explosive duel into a structured, tactical battle where Italy hold a clear advantage. The Azzurri’s superior depth, current form, and tactical clarity make them the heavy favorites. While the Slovenian players will be fiercely motivated to protect their home court and prove their worth, the Italian machine, operating at full capacity, is likely to overpower the home side and secure a decisive victory as they march confidently toward the official World Cup qualifiers. The final score is projected to be in the range of 85-70, with Italy’s defense smothering the Slovenian attack and their offense flowing seamlessly from start to finish.
