PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar on January 17
The Eredivisie returns with an intriguing clash on January 17 between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar. As both sides look to solidify their ambitions in the league, this match is set to be a defining moment for their respective seasons. PEC Zwolle, struggling in the mid-table, faces a daunting task against a confident AZ Alkmaar side, who continue to chase a spot in European football. With both teams displaying contrasting fortunes, expect a tactical battle that could swing either way. The match will take place at the MAC³PARK Stadion, and all eyes will be on the pitch as these two sides battle it out for crucial points.
PEC Zwolle: Tactical Approach and Current Form
PEC Zwolle enters this match with a mixed bag of results, having won two of their last five league fixtures. Their most recent outing saw them pick up an important draw against Utrecht, highlighting their defensive resilience. The team is currently sitting mid-table, but with just a handful of points separating them from the relegation zone, survival remains their primary objective. PEC Zwolle have often relied on a 4-2-3-1 setup, characterized by a compact defensive block and quick transitions. They have maintained an average of 45% possession over the last five matches, which reflects their pragmatic approach to games, prioritizing counter-attacks over build-up play.
Statistically, PEC Zwolle's offensive output has been lackluster, with an xG (expected goals) of 1.2 per match in the last five games, a sign of their struggles in creating high-quality chances. Their press in the final third is sporadic, ranking 13th in the league for pressing actions, which could be exploited by more tactically astute opponents like AZ Alkmaar.
Key players include their captain, Reuven Niemeijer, who anchors the midfield and is integral to their pressing game. However, they will be without the services of star forward Yuta Nakayama, who has been sidelined due to an injury. This loss could significantly impact their attacking potency and force PEC Zwolle to rely even more on their defensive structure. Look for Niemeijer to be crucial in controlling tempo and breaking up AZ’s attacks.
AZ Alkmaar: Tactical Approach and Current Form
AZ Alkmaar have been in excellent form, securing four wins and one loss in their last five outings. They are currently in the thick of the race for a European spot, and every point is vital for their aspirations. Head coach Pascal Jansen has instilled a high-pressing, possession-based philosophy into the team, with AZ enjoying 58% possession on average in recent matches. Their tactical setup revolves around a fluid 4-3-3 formation, which allows them to dominate the midfield while providing width and attacking dynamism via their wingers.
Offensively, AZ has been one of the most dangerous teams in the league, with an xG of 2.0 per game in the last five. Their ability to break through opposition lines with quick passing and intelligent movement is one of their key strengths. The combination of their midfield dominance and the creativity of players like Vangelis Pavlidis and Jordy Clasie has made them a formidable force going forward. Pavlidis, in particular, has been in red-hot form, with 8 goals in his last 10 matches, making him a player to watch in this fixture.
However, their defense has been a mixed bag, with AZ conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game in their recent matches. While they are solid at the back, their high line can occasionally leave them vulnerable to quick counter-attacks. PEC Zwolle's ability to exploit spaces behind the defense could be a key tactic if they are to upset their more favored opponents.
Key injuries for AZ include the absence of right-back Yukinari Sugawara, who is out with a muscle injury. His absence could affect AZ's balance on the right flank, potentially allowing PEC Zwolle to gain some joy down that side. However, the depth in AZ's squad means they are likely to adapt without significant issues.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The history between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar has seen the latter come out on top in the majority of their recent meetings. Over the past five encounters, AZ has won three times, while PEC Zwolle has managed just one victory. The most recent meeting earlier in the season saw AZ triumph 2-1 at home, with a dominant second-half performance. PEC Zwolle has struggled to deal with AZ’s high press and fluid attacking play, often failing to cope with their pace and precision. However, PEC Zwolle did manage to win 1-0 in a 2022 clash, showcasing that they are capable of causing an upset when they manage to disrupt AZ's rhythm.
Psychologically, AZ will be the favorites, but PEC Zwolle could take solace from their ability to play compact football and grind out results against stronger opponents. A solid defensive display could frustrate AZ, who tend to lose patience when faced with organized opposition.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
One of the most crucial battles in this game will be in the midfield, where PEC Zwolle's Reuven Niemeijer will be tasked with neutralizing the influence of AZ's Jordy Clasie. Clasie’s ability to dictate tempo and control possession will be key to AZ's success, and if Niemeijer can disrupt his rhythm, PEC Zwolle will have a much better chance of stifling AZ’s creativity. Another vital area will be the battle on the flanks. PEC Zwolle’s right-back will have to deal with AZ’s winger, Jesper Karlsson, who has been in exceptional form this season. If Karlsson is allowed to drift inside and combine with Pavlidis, AZ could easily break through PEC Zwolle’s defensive lines.
Additionally, PEC Zwolle will need to be mindful of AZ’s ability to overload the central areas. With players like Clasie and Koyaan Heerkens constantly rotating positions, PEC Zwolle’s defense could find themselves stretched if they are not compact enough.
Match Scenario and Prediction
The most likely scenario for this match is a battle of contrasting styles: PEC Zwolle will seek to sit deep and hit AZ on the counter, while AZ will dominate possession and look to break down PEC Zwolle’s defense with their quick, fluid attack. PEC Zwolle’s best hope lies in a disciplined defensive performance, where they can capitalize on AZ’s occasional lapses in concentration at the back. However, given AZ’s superior quality and attacking threat, it is likely that they will come out on top.
The prediction: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 PEC Zwolle. The match will likely see AZ maintain over 60% possession and generate at least 2.5 expected goals, while PEC Zwolle will struggle to create meaningful chances, potentially failing to score.
Final Thoughts
This match will be a test of PEC Zwolle’s ability to frustrate the attacking force of AZ Alkmaar. Can PEC Zwolle disrupt AZ’s flowing play and take advantage of their defensive vulnerabilities? Or will AZ’s superior quality shine through, securing them another step closer to European football? One thing is certain: it will be a clash of styles, and the tactical battle will be key. The big question is, can PEC Zwolle disrupt AZ's rhythm and cause an upset on home turf?
