Athletic Bilbao B vs Real Aviles on 16 January
On January 16th, the Primera RFEF will feature a gripping encounter between Athletic Bilbao B and Real Avilés at the Estadio Lezama. The stakes couldn’t be higher as both teams continue to battle for supremacy in Spain's third division, with each side eyeing key points to push further up the table. Athletic Bilbao B, as the reserve team of the La Liga side, is expected to play with a fluid, aggressive approach, while Real Avilés, a club in the midst of their own surge, will look to make a statement in one of the more challenging away fixtures of the season. The clash promises to be tactical, fast-paced, and unpredictable, with both teams bringing their distinct styles to the field.
Athletic Bilbao B: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Athletic Bilbao B has shown some consistency in recent weeks, securing three wins and two draws in their last five outings. The team has demonstrated a solid tactical setup under the stewardship of their manager, focusing on a high-pressing, possession-based style. The 4-3-3 formation remains their preferred choice, allowing them to press aggressively in the opposition’s half and create overloads in wide areas. Their pressing game is built on quick transitions, forcing turnovers high up the pitch, and rapidly moving the ball through midfield. The attacking trident of Ibai Gómez, Álex Orozco, and Asier Villalibre will be key in creating chances through quick interplay and direct runs into the box.
In terms of key stats, Athletic Bilbao B leads the league in pressing actions per game (over 170), and they maintain a possession rate of 59%, with over 15 shots per match on average. Their expected goals (xG) stands at 1.5 per match, reflecting their fluid attacking play, though they also concede a considerable amount, averaging 1.2 xGA (expected goals against). This indicates some vulnerability at the back, especially in wide positions where their full-backs tend to push forward, leaving space for counter-attacks.
The fitness of the squad is relatively positive, with key players like Ibai Gómez in strong form, contributing both goals and assists. However, the suspension of central defender Unai Vencedor could impact their defensive stability, forcing a reshuffle at the back. His absence may expose weaknesses in one-on-one situations, especially against a direct and physically imposing side like Real Avilés.
Real Avilés: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Real Avilés enters this match on the back of a mixed run, recording two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five games. Their form has been a bit erratic, but they possess a disciplined tactical structure that can cause problems for any team. The visitors typically set up in a 4-4-2 formation, preferring to absorb pressure and hit teams on the counter. Their strategy revolves around solid defensive organization, strong aerial duels, and quick transitions through their wingers, often relying on long passes to their strikers, notably Jonathan Ruiz, who has a penchant for getting behind opposition defenses.
Real Avilés tends to prioritize compactness, especially in the middle third, often defending with a high block when pressing. Their defensive solidity has seen them concede only 1.0 xGA per match. However, this setup can also make them prone to losing possession in dangerous areas, as their midfield lacks the dynamism of other teams in the division. They have a relatively low average of shots per game (just 10), and their xG rate stands at a modest 1.0 per match. While they aren't prolific in attack, they are clinical when the opportunities arise, making them dangerous on the break.
Key to their chances will be the form of Ruiz and attacking midfielder Álvaro García, who has been in great shape recently. However, the suspension of right-back Alejandro Martín could disrupt their defensive stability, particularly in dealing with Athletic Bilbao B’s wide threat. Expect to see a solid defensive shape from Real Avilés, with counter-attacks coming primarily from the speed of their forwards.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The last three encounters between these two sides have been tight, physical affairs, with Athletic Bilbao B coming out on top in two of them. The most recent clash in September ended with a narrow 2-1 victory for the hosts, despite Real Avilés controlling much of the second half. Historically, Athletic Bilbao B has had the upper hand, but Real Avilés has often proved difficult to break down, especially in games played at Lezama. Their defensive shape and counter-attacking style have caused problems for more possession-based teams in the past, and they'll look to exploit any gaps left by Athletic’s high defensive line.
Psychologically, this is a match that could have significant implications for both teams. Athletic Bilbao B, being the reserve side, has a tendency to play with more freedom, but the pressure to maintain their position in the top half of the table is ever-present. On the other hand, Real Avilés is motivated by their strong belief that they can climb the standings and push for a playoff spot, making them especially dangerous in away fixtures like this one.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
The most intriguing battle in this fixture will be the one between Athletic Bilbao B’s full-backs and the wingers of Real Avilés. The visitors’ wide players, notably García, will look to exploit the space left behind by the attacking runs of Bilbao B’s full-backs, especially with Vencedor absent from the center. If Real Avilés can break through the high press and deliver accurate balls into the box, they could cause problems for Bilbao B’s defense. On the flip side, Bilbao B’s wingers will need to work tirelessly to disrupt the defensive shape of Real Avilés, who will likely sit deep and look to frustrate their opponents.
Another crucial duel will be in the midfield, where Athletic Bilbao B’s ability to control the tempo will be key. With Real Avilés sitting back, it will be up to Bilbao B’s midfielders to dominate possession and create overloads, especially through the creative abilities of Orozco. If Real Avilés can break the midfield rhythm and win the ball in advanced areas, they could punish Athletic on the counter, with Ruiz as the focal point of their attacks.
Match Scenario and Prediction
The most likely scenario for this game is a closely contested encounter, with both teams trying to impose their style of play. Athletic Bilbao B will dominate possession, attempting to break down Real Avilés with their pressing game and fluid attacking transitions. However, Real Avilés will be difficult to break down and will look to exploit any gaps on the counter-attack. The absence of Vencedor could lead to some vulnerabilities at the back for Athletic, but their high press will likely force Real Avilés to defend deep, limiting their offensive opportunities.
In terms of prediction, Athletic Bilbao B should edge this one 2-1, but expect a hard-fought contest. The key metrics to watch will be possession in the final third, pressing actions, and how many counter-attacks Real Avilés can convert into chances. A bet on “Both Teams to Score” seems like a reasonable choice, given the attacking talent on both sides.
Final Thoughts
The outcome of this match will likely hinge on how effectively Real Avilés can counter Athletic Bilbao B’s high pressing game and whether the home side can exploit the absence of Vencedor. Bilbao B's fluid attack will face a tough test against Avilés’ defensive organization, but the youth and dynamism of the home side’s play could prove decisive. Will Athletic Bilbao B maintain their momentum, or will Real Avilés prove to be the more resilient side? The result will offer significant insights into both teams' aspirations for the remainder of the season.
