HPK vs TPS on January 16
On January 16, a fierce battle in the Liiga will unfold at the Tappara Arena, where HPK will face TPS in what promises to be a thrilling encounter. Both teams are in the midst of tight playoff races, and this match is a crucial opportunity to either build momentum or fall further behind in the standings. The ice will undoubtedly be electric as the squads take to the rink, bringing their tactical strategies, star players, and competitive fire to the forefront of Finnish hockey. In this article, we'll break down both teams' form, playing styles, and the key factors that will decide the outcome of this eagerly awaited contest.
HPK: Tactical Approach and Current Form
HPK's recent form has been a mixed bag, with their last five games yielding two wins, two losses, and one overtime defeat. Despite this, they have shown flashes of quality, particularly in their offensive transitions and defensive organization. A hallmark of HPK's play under head coach Antti Pennanen has been their disciplined forechecking. They excel in pressuring the puck carrier in the neutral zone, forcing turnovers and quickly transitioning into offense. This has been evident in their shots on goal per game, which stands at an impressive 33.4 — a reflection of their ability to capitalize on turnovers and create scoring opportunities in high-danger areas.
In terms of tactical setup, HPK operates primarily in a 1-2-2 forecheck formation, which allows them to stifle opposing rushes and maintain a compact defensive structure. Their special teams have been a critical factor as well, with a power play efficiency of 22.5% — solid, but needing improvement in high-pressure moments. Defensively, HPK is decent at limiting quality chances, with a penalty kill rate of 81.8%. Their ability to shut down TPS's potent power play will be crucial in determining the flow of the game.
Key players include veteran forward Jesse Makkonen, whose 18 points in 25 games have made him the offensive catalyst. The defense corps, led by captain Jere Myllyniemi, has been a stabilizing force, but the team will be missing the services of skilled forward Juuso Puustinen due to injury. Puustinen's absence leaves a gap in the top six, which could potentially hurt HPK's depth.
TPS: Tactical Approach and Current Form
TPS enters this matchup riding a wave of momentum, with three wins in their last five outings. Their form has been especially strong on the road, where they've found success by exploiting open ice and using their quick transitions to overwhelm opposing defenses. Head coach Kalle Kaskinen has set up his team to capitalize on speed, particularly through the neutral zone, where TPS often looks to stretch the ice and create odd-man rushes. Their offensive output is anchored by a highly efficient power play, converting 25.4% of opportunities, one of the highest marks in Liiga.
TPS's forecheck differs from HPK's, as they often employ a high-pressure 2-1-2 formation, pushing deep into the offensive zone and attempting to win battles along the boards. While this can lead to turnovers, it also generates a lot of shots on goal, and TPS has averaged 32.9 shots per game. Their defensive play has been less consistent, with a penalty kill efficiency of 77.3%, suggesting that they may struggle to maintain discipline against a well-organized HPK power play.
In terms of key players, TPS's star forward, Ahti Oksanen, has been in stellar form, tallying 20 points in his last 15 games. His ability to score from both the perimeter and the slot makes him a constant threat. Defensively, goalie Joni Ortio will play a crucial role; his .919 save percentage has been a standout stat this season. However, TPS will be without their top defenseman, Valtteri Puustinen, due to suspension, a loss that could hurt their ability to handle the physicality and forecheck intensity that HPK brings.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The recent history between these two teams has been tightly contested, with the last five encounters producing a near-equal split of victories. HPK edged TPS in the previous two matchups, with both games featuring strong defensive performances and close margins. In their most recent meeting, HPK triumphed 4-3 in a game that saw excellent goaltending on both sides, but it was HPK's superior power play execution that ultimately made the difference. TPS will look to reverse this trend by tightening up defensively and exploiting HPK's missing depth in the forward ranks.
In terms of psychology, HPK will be feeling the pressure to get a result, as they are currently on the outskirts of playoff contention. With a packed playoff race ahead, they cannot afford to drop points at home. On the other hand, TPS, sitting comfortably in the top half of the table, will be more relaxed but will want to solidify their position with a win. The battle for psychological advantage will come down to which team can handle the high-pressure moments in the third period, especially if the game remains tight.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
One of the most critical battles will be the matchup between the two teams' special teams, especially on the power play. HPK's 22.5% efficiency will face off against TPS's 25.4%, and whichever team can gain an edge in these high-stakes situations will likely determine the outcome. Given both teams' power play prowess, we can expect at least a couple of crucial goals from the man-advantage.
Another pivotal battle will take place in the neutral zone, where HPK's structured forecheck will try to disrupt TPS's quick transition game. If HPK can prevent TPS from utilizing their speed, they will have a much better chance of controlling the tempo of the game. The physicality of the game will also play a significant role, particularly along the boards and in front of the net. HPK's strong forecheck will look to wear down the TPS defense, and if they succeed in this area, it could tilt the game in their favor.
Finally, the goalie duel between HPK's Antti Lehtonen and TPS's Joni Ortio will be a crucial factor. Both goalies have shown they can perform under pressure, and whichever netminder can steal a few key saves in high-stress moments could be the difference-maker.
Match Scenario and Prediction
This game is likely to be a tight, tactical affair, with both teams focusing on their strengths: HPK's disciplined defensive play and TPS's quick transitions. We expect a low-scoring, physical game with plenty of back-and-forth action. The key factors will be which team can capitalize on special teams opportunities and which defense holds up under pressure.
With HPK's home-ice advantage and a stronger defensive structure, they have the edge in this matchup. However, the absence of Puustinen leaves a notable hole in their forward depth, which TPS will look to exploit with their high-speed game. If TPS can limit HPK's power play and find a way to break through Lehtonen, they have the tools to pull off a win. On the other hand, if HPK can capitalize on their power play and keep the game physical, they should be able to grind out a hard-fought victory.
Final Score Prediction: HPK 3-2 TPS (Regulation)
Final Thoughts
The outcome of this match will hinge on which team can better impose their style of play. Can TPS break through HPK's defensive structure and capitalize on special teams? Or will HPK prove too strong on home ice, using their physicality and forecheck to dictate the pace of the game? One thing is for sure: this clash will provide a real test of both teams' resolve and playoff credentials.
This matchup will answer one crucial question: Can TPS overcome HPK's defensive structure and power play, or will HPK maintain their dominance in tight contests and keep their playoff hopes alive?
