Necaxa vs Atletico San Luis on February 7
As the clock ticks down to February 7th, all eyes will be on the Estadio Victoria as two Liga MX rivals, Necaxa and Atlético San Luis, prepare to clash in what promises to be an intriguing battle. Both teams are hungry for points in a tight season, and this fixture could have lasting implications on their hopes for mid-table security or a potential push for the playoffs. But beyond the stakes of three valuable points, this match represents a tactical showdown where each team's individual strengths will collide. For Necaxa, the pressure is on to reclaim form after a somewhat underwhelming start, while Atlético San Luis will look to continue their strong run of recent performances. The question is: which of these teams will be able to dictate play, and can either one break through their opponent’s defensive setup? The game kicks off at 7:00 PM local time in Aguascalientes, with conditions expected to be mild, which should contribute to an entertaining spectacle of football.
Necaxa: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Necaxa’s form over their last five matches has been inconsistent, registering just one win, two draws, and two losses. Despite a resilient defense, they’ve struggled to find the right attacking formula, relying heavily on counter-attacks and set-piece opportunities. Coach Jaime Lozano has set up his side in a 4-4-2 formation that looks to capitalize on direct, quick transitions, with wingers moving into central areas to support the two forwards. The team’s average possession rate over their last five matches is just 44%, signaling their focus on compact defending and hitting teams on the break. Their pressing game is non-existent in terms of intensity, with just 9.6 successful pressing actions per match, but their defensive solidity has earned them 4 clean sheets in 10 matches this season.
Key players for Necaxa include their captain, Mauro Laínez, who orchestrates the midfield, and striker Leonardo Ramos, who has been the main threat up front. However, the form of Ramos has dipped, with the forward struggling to score in recent weeks, a key concern for the team’s attacking potency. Defensively, they have been solid, but with the absence of right-back Alan Mozo, who is sidelined with injury, the team will likely struggle to handle Atlético San Luis' attacking width. In terms of statistics, Necaxa ranks 11th in the league for xG per match (1.28), a number that will need to improve if they are to trouble San Luis’ defense.
Atlético San Luis: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Atlético San Luis enters this match in strong form, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. Under coach André Jardine, the team has employed a 4-3-3 setup that focuses on possession and high pressing. The team averages 56% possession per match, with a clear emphasis on dominating the midfield. Their pressing game is one of the most aggressive in Liga MX, with 17 successful pressing actions per match, reflecting their desire to disrupt opposition play in advanced areas. They have also been prolific in attack, boasting a league-leading xG of 1.77 per match, fueled by the dynamic play of their forwards and attacking midfielders. However, their defensive structure has at times been shaky, especially when forced to defend deep, as evidenced by their 1.3 goals conceded per match.
Key players for Atlético San Luis include the mercurial Nicolás Ibáñez, who has been the team’s talisman in front of goal, netting 7 goals so far. Alongside him, the creative spark of Juan Castro in the midfield will be essential for unlocking Necaxa’s deep-lying defense. Castro’s ability to dictate the tempo and thread incisive passes through the lines will be crucial for San Luis’ attacking setup. In defense, the presence of Ricardo Chávez has been important, but with the suspension of central defender José Rodríguez, Atlético will need to adjust their backline. Given Rodríguez’s absence, it will be interesting to see how San Luis’ defense copes with the aerial threat posed by Necaxa's forwards.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The history between these two teams has been tight, with no side managing to assert dominance over the other. In the last five encounters, both teams have won twice, with one draw. However, the nature of these fixtures has been competitive, with several games featuring a high number of yellow cards and a tendency for defensive sides to set up and neutralize attacking threats. In their most recent encounter, a 1-1 draw in the opening round of the season, Necaxa showed resilience after conceding early, equalizing late through a set-piece. Atlético San Luis, despite controlling much of the game, struggled to break down Necaxa’s low block, revealing a vulnerability in breaking down defensive setups. Historically, these clashes have been a tactical chess match, and this next one will likely be no different.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
One of the key battles will occur in the midfield, where Atlético San Luis’ Juan Castro will be pitted against Necaxa’s Mauro Laínez. The quality of possession and passing will be pivotal in this contest. Castro will need to assert control and supply balls to Ibáñez, while Laínez must disrupt these passing lanes to ensure Necaxa can remain compact and soak up pressure. Another fascinating duel will be between the two teams' right-backs—Necaxa’s Mozo’s replacement, likely the inexperienced Ignacio Peñaloza, and San Luis’ left-winger, Andrés Vombergar. The Austrian winger has been in superb form, and his ability to stretch the pitch with his pace and deliver dangerous crosses will test Necaxa’s defensive coherence, especially in the absence of Mozo.
The central area of the pitch will be crucial as well. San Luis’ ability to control possession and push Necaxa back will likely determine whether they can exploit spaces in the final third. However, if Necaxa can win the midfield battle and transition quickly, they will look to target the space left behind by San Luis' aggressive pressing system.
Match Scenario and Prediction
With both teams employing contrasting styles, this match will come down to the balance between Atlético San Luis’ attacking flair and Necaxa’s defensive resilience. Necaxa will likely sit deep, trying to frustrate San Luis and capitalize on set-pieces and counter-attacks. Atlético San Luis will look to dominate possession, press high, and create chances through their dynamic attacking play. However, without Rodríguez in defense, they may struggle to contain Necaxa’s aerial threats, particularly if they play to their strengths in the final third.
Given their form and the tactical setups, a draw seems likely, but Atlético San Luis’ superior attacking quality might edge them to a narrow victory. The game could end 2-1 in favor of the visitors, with both teams likely to score given the attacking talents on display.
Final Thoughts
This clash between Necaxa and Atlético San Luis is a fascinating tactical battle that pits defensive discipline against attacking ambition. The result will depend on which team can impose their style on the game. For Necaxa, they must find a way to break San Luis’ high press, while Atlético San Luis must overcome Necaxa’s compact defense to secure the three points.
The question this match will answer: Can Necaxa stifle Atlético San Luis’ potent attack, or will San Luis break through and claim a crucial away win?
