NAC Breda vs Excelsior on February 6
On February 6, two mid-table Eredivisie sides, NAC Breda and Excelsior, will square off at the Rat Verlegh Stadion, both eyeing crucial points in their quest to solidify their positions in the league. For both clubs, a victory could prove pivotal in their respective ambitions for a top-half finish, or in Excelsior's case, escaping the looming relegation battle. With the backdrop of an increasingly competitive Eredivisie, every point matters, making this an eagerly anticipated clash.
NAC Breda: Tactical Approach and Current Form
NAC Breda enters this game in decent form, having won three of their last five Eredivisie matches. However, their inconsistency in performance against the league's stronger teams is evident, often struggling to maintain control of possession in high-pressure situations. Under manager Peter Hyballa, NAC is known for their high pressing and aggressive approach, a style that has helped them dominate possession (54.2% on average this season) but has also left them vulnerable to quick counter-attacks.
Their tactical setup revolves around a fluid 4-3-3 formation, where the midfield trio is key to both breaking up opposition play and distributing forward passes. The wingbacks, especially, play an integral role in both defense and attack, constantly overlapping the wingers to create width and stretch the opposition’s defense. NAC's xG (expected goals) stands at 1.35 per game, which is a reflection of their efficient forward play, though their defense often leaves much to be desired with an average of 1.63 goals conceded per match.
One key player to watch is forward Jort van der Sande, who has been in excellent form with 5 goals in his last 6 appearances. His positioning and ability to exploit spaces left by opposing full-backs could prove crucial. Defensively, NAC's challenge remains in dealing with set-pieces and high balls into the box, where their aerial duels win rate of 52.3% suggests a vulnerability against taller, more physical teams.
In terms of injuries, NAC Breda has been dealt a blow with the absence of key center-back Mohamed Rayhi, who is out due to suspension. His absence will place additional pressure on their remaining defensive options, and the team's ability to cope with Excelsior's potential aerial threat will be tested. The midfield battle will be crucial, as NAC's creativity from the likes of Mikkel Duelund will need to balance the aggression with control to keep their momentum intact.
Excelsior: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Excelsior, on the other hand, finds itself in a more precarious position, having lost 3 of their last 5 matches. However, they have shown signs of resilience, particularly in their 2-1 victory against Fortuna Sittard, where they demonstrated defensive discipline and a dangerous counter-attacking threat. Their current tactical philosophy is more compact, relying on a 4-4-2 formation designed to frustrate and break up opposition attacks. Their defensive solidity is reflected in their xGA (expected goals against), which stands at 1.39, indicating that while they are solid at the back, they still allow teams opportunities to score.
Excelsior's approach is one of disciplined defending and quick transitions. Their midfield is tasked with winning second balls and quickly distributing passes to their strikers, with both winger Ahmad Mendes Moreira and forward Redouan El Yaakoubi providing the pace needed for fast breaks. While their possession stats (45.3% on average) don't suggest a dominating force in midfield, their direct play and ability to capitalize on set-pieces (averaging 4.7 corners per game) have been effective in their bid to stay afloat in the league.
The key man for Excelsior will be Moreira, who has been directly involved in over 30% of the team's goals this season. His pace and dribbling ability make him a constant threat on the counter, while his link-up play with El Yaakoubi will be crucial in breaking through NAC's defensive lines. The visitors will also rely on goalkeeper Joël Drommel, who has kept 4 clean sheets this season and will need to be at his best to thwart NAC's offensive threats.
However, Excelsior faces its own injury concerns. Midfielder Yassin Oukili is sidelined with a muscle injury, meaning they will have to reshuffle their midfield, likely relying on the experience of 30-year-old captain Richard van der Venne to anchor the midfield. This could impact their ability to control the game, and much will depend on how they manage the transition between defense and attack.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
In their last 5 meetings, the matches between NAC Breda and Excelsior have been closely contested, with the balance slightly favoring NAC with 3 wins to Excelsior's 2. Their previous encounter this season ended in a 1-1 draw, a result that highlights the tight nature of this rivalry. Both teams have demonstrated moments of quality, but they have also shown their weaknesses, particularly when it comes to defensive errors and lapses in concentration. Historically, the matches have often been cagey affairs, with both sides preferring to play on the counter rather than dominating possession.
Excelsior's most recent victory over NAC Breda was a memorable 3-1 win in the 2022 season, where they took full advantage of NAC's defensive fragility, capitalizing on their high defensive line. Expect NAC to have learned from this encounter, but Excelsior will be buoyed by the confidence of their past triumph and will come into this match with a sense of belief that they can get a result, particularly with their ability to disrupt NAC's rhythm.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
The first key battle will be between NAC's left-back, Julio Pleguezuelo, and Excelsior's winger, Ahmad Mendes Moreira. Pleguezuelo’s defensive positioning has been a point of concern this season, and Moreira’s pace could exploit this vulnerability. If Moreira can get behind Pleguezuelo and create 1v1 situations, NAC will be under severe pressure.
The second battle will take place in the middle of the park, where NAC's Mikkel Duelund will face off against Excelsior's Richard van der Venne. Duelund's creativity in central midfield has been a major strength for NAC, but van der Venne's experience and ability to disrupt the flow could be key in stifling NAC’s attack. The winner of this battle will have a massive impact on the tempo of the game.
Lastly, the aerial duel between NAC's center-backs and Excelsior’s striker Redouan El Yaakoubi will be decisive. NAC’s defensive aerial duels win rate of 52.3% is worrying, and El Yaakoubi’s physicality could be a game-changer, especially on set-pieces or long balls.
Match Scenario and Prediction
The most likely scenario for this match is a cagey first half, with both teams focusing on maintaining defensive solidity while probing for the occasional counter-attack. NAC’s pressing style will test Excelsior’s defensive organization, but their ability to break quickly will remain a concern for the home side. Expect a tactical battle in midfield, where Duelund’s creative passing will be crucial for NAC to break through Excelsior's lines.
The match will likely be decided by the effectiveness of set-pieces and the individual brilliance of players like Moreira and van der Sande. If NAC can keep Moreira quiet and exploit Excelsior’s defensive weaknesses, they should edge this encounter. On the other hand, if Excelsior can manage the physicality of NAC and launch swift counter-attacks, they could pull off a surprise result.
Prediction: NAC Breda 2-1 Excelsior – Expect a close encounter, but NAC’s attacking strength should prove too much for Excelsior, despite their defensive resilience.
Final Thoughts
This match will answer whether NAC Breda’s attacking prowess can overpower Excelsior’s defensive tactics or if the visitors can frustrate their hosts with discipline and swift counter-attacks. With both teams looking to strengthen their position in the league, expect a tense and tactical battle that could swing either way.
Will NAC Breda’s attacking depth be enough to break down Excelsior's defense, or will the visitors' defensive resilience and quick counters secure an upset?
