Alkmaar (w) vs Excelsior (w) on 22 May
The Eredivisie Vrouwen is entering its decisive phase. This Friday, 22 May, the AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar hosts a clash that carries more weight than the mid-table standings suggest. Alkmaar (w) welcome Excelsior (w) in a match not about titles or relegation, but about pride, momentum, and two very different footballing projects. Under grey Dutch skies with a stiff North Sea breeze likely affecting long balls, the artificial pitch will reward precision over power. Alkmaar are chasing a top-five finish to call their season a success. Excelsior need points to distance themselves from the chasing pack. The visitors won the reverse fixture 2-1, a result that still stings the home dressing room. This is not just a rematch. It is a tactical audit of two distinct philosophies: Alkmaar’s structured possession versus Excelsior’s reactive, transition-heavy chaos.
Alkmaar (w): Tactical Approach and Current Form
Over their last five matches, Alkmaar have shown the inconsistency of a young team learning to dominate games. Two wins, two draws, and one loss (W-D-L-D-W) tell the story of a side that controls the ball but struggles to convert possession into expected goals. Their average possession sits at a commanding 58%, yet their xG per match hovers just above 1.2. The problem is not creation. It is the final third’s pass accuracy, which drops to a worrying 62% under pressure. Head coach Mark de Vries has settled on a fluid 4-3-3, but in practice it morphs into a 2-3-5 in attack, with fullbacks pushing extremely high. Their pressing triggers are coordinated: they force opponents wide, then trap them along the touchline. However, when that press is broken, the exposed centre-backs — often left in one-on-one sprints — become vulnerable.
The engine room belongs to Romée van de Lavoir, a deep-lying playmaker who dictates tempo with over 70 passes per game at 88% accuracy. She is the metronome, but her lack of recovery pace is a known weakness. The real threat is winger Floor Spaan — 7 goals and 4 assists this season — who loves to cut inside from the left onto her stronger right foot. She will be Alkmaar’s primary release valve. On the injury front, starting goalkeeper Lois Niënhuis is ruled out with a shoulder issue. Her replacement, 19-year-old Femke Liefting, has only two senior appearances. Her command of the penalty area on crosses is untested at this level. That single absence shifts the balance significantly, forcing Alkmaar’s defence to avoid giving away set-pieces at all costs.
Excelsior (w): Tactical Approach and Current Form
Excelsior arrive with a completely different profile: compact, direct, and utterly unapologetic about surrendering the ball. Their last five outings (L-W-L-D-W) are a rollercoaster, but the underlying numbers are consistent. They average just 37% possession yet generate a similar xG per match (1.15) to Alkmaar. This efficiency is no accident. Coach Richard den Dunnen deploys a 4-4-2 that becomes a 6-2-2 out of possession, with two banks of four sitting just outside their own penalty area. The moment they win the ball, they switch horizontally or play a direct diagonal into the channels. They attempt over 20 long passes per game — the second-highest in the league — and are lethal in transition. Three of their last four goals came from turnovers in the opposition’s half.
The key is the strike duo: Dana Breewel (9 goals) and Jada Talbot (6 goals, 4 assists). Talbot drops deep to disrupt the opposition’s pivot, while Breewel plays on the last shoulder. They do not combine intricately; they hunt second balls. Defensively, centre-back Yara Helderman is the unsung hero, leading the league in blocks (34) and aerial duels won per game (5.2). There are no fresh suspensions, but right-back Lieve van Vliet is playing through a minor knee complaint. Her recovery speed in wide areas is their only real defensive fragility. Excelsior know they cannot outplay Alkmaar. They intend to out-suffer them.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The last five meetings tell a tale of narrow margins and rising tension. Alkmaar have won three, Excelsior two, but no victory has been by more than a single goal. The reverse fixture this season (Excelsior 2-1) was a tactical horror show for Alkmaar: 68% possession, 15 shots, but only four on target. Excelsior’s two goals came from a long throw-in and a misplaced back-pass — classic examples of forced errors. The match before that (Alkmaar 1-0) saw the home side grind out a win from a corner routine. What is persistent? The team that scores first has won every single one of the last four encounters. Psychology is paramount here. Excelsior believe they have Alkmaar’s number in chaotic moments, while Alkmaar feel they owe their fans a performance of control and punishment. Expect early aggression. The first goal will be a hammer blow.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
Battle 1: Romée van de Lavoir vs. Jada Talbot. This is the tactical fulcrum. If Van de Lavoir is allowed to turn and pick passes, Alkmaar’s possession becomes dangerous. But Talbot’s brief is to man-mark her in the build-up phase, forcing errors or sideways passes. Whoever wins this midfield duel determines the game’s tempo.
Battle 2: Floor Spaan vs. Yara Helderman. This is not a direct matchup on paper, but it will become one every time Spaan cuts inside. Helderman must step out of the defensive line to block the shooting corridor. If she is too slow, Spaan scores. If she steps too early, the space behind her opens for Alkmaar’s overlapping fullback. This is the game’s most electric one-on-one.
The Critical Zone: the flanks in transition. Alkmaar’s high fullbacks leave gaping space behind them. Excelsior’s entire attacking plan is to hit that exact space, specifically down their left (Alkmaar’s right), where Excelsior’s left winger Lieke de With — blessed with blistering pace but poor final ball — will target the slower recovery run of Alkmaar’s right-back. If the pitch is wet from the predicted drizzle, expect even more slipped challenges in these wide areas.
Match Scenario and Prediction
First 15 minutes: Alkmaar will attempt a slow, controlled build-up, but the artificial pitch and wind will disrupt short passes. Excelsior will let them have the ball in their own half, then spring into a coordinated mid-block. The first real chance will come from an Alkmaar turnover — that is the pattern. By the 30th minute, frustration may set in for the hosts, leading to rushed crosses that Helderman and her partner will devour. Excelsior are patient. They want this game to be 0-0 at half-time. The second half hinges on substitutions. Alkmaar will push even higher, and that is where the trap opens. One long ball over the top for Breewel, one slip from the young Alkmaar goalkeeper, and the entire script flips. The most likely scenario is a low-scoring affair decided by one moment of brilliance or one goalkeeping error. Both teams to score is tempting, but Alkmaar’s defensive discipline at home (only 0.9 goals conceded per game at AFAS) suggests a shutout for one side.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals. The correct score leans towards 1-0 or 1-1, but the historical pattern says the team that scores first wins. Given Excelsior’s clinical transition and Alkmaar’s backup goalkeeper, the value lies in Excelsior +0.5 (double chance). A 1-0 away win is a real possibility if Breewel converts her one clear chance. For the brave: first goal after the 60th minute.
Final Thoughts
This is not a classic; it is a chess match between control and chaos. Alkmaar will have the ball, but Excelsior have the plan. The question this Friday will answer is simple: can structured possession survive the randomness of a wet pitch, a nervous young goalkeeper, and a forward line that needs only one mistake? For the neutral, watch the first ten minutes. If Alkmaar have not scored by then, the psychological edge shifts. The Dutch Eredivisie often rewards bravery, but on 22 May, it may just reward the team willing to suffer without the ball. Buckle up for a tense, tactical grind.
