Excelsior vs Ajax on 1 February
The Eredivisie clash between Excelsior and Ajax, scheduled for February 1, promises to be a captivating spectacle. The match will unfold at Excelsior's Stadion Woudestein, a venue known for its vibrant atmosphere and intense home crowd. As both teams fight for vital points, the stakes are high: Ajax is chasing a top-three finish to secure a spot in European competitions, while Excelsior is desperately trying to pull away from the relegation zone. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be cool, with a chance of light rain—conditions that could add an extra layer of unpredictability to the proceedings.
Excelsior: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Excelsior enters this match in a precarious position, sitting just above the relegation zone. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Despite their struggles, they have demonstrated resilience, particularly in defensive situations. The team’s tactical setup often revolves around a compact 4-4-2 formation, designed to stifle opposition attacks and counter quickly. With a focus on defensive solidity, Excelsior's low possession style leaves them with fewer opportunities to dominate the ball. However, they are dangerous on the break, utilizing pace on the wings to exploit the spaces left behind by high defensive lines.
Statistically, Excelsior averages 42% possession per match, with a low 75% pass accuracy, indicating their preference for direct play rather than possession-based build-up. Their pressing game is minimal, averaging just 7.1 high pressing actions per 90 minutes, preferring instead to sit back and frustrate their opponents with a disciplined shape. Set pieces could be a key source of offense, with Excelsior winning an average of 4.2 corners per match. Key to their survival in this fixture will be the performance of their central midfield, where they will need to break up Ajax’s possession while controlling the tempo in transitions.
Excelsior's key player is winger Jay-Roy Grot, whose ability to stretch the opposition's defensive lines with direct runs could provide the breakthrough on the counter. However, the team will miss the presence of their captain, Robin van der Meer, who is suspended after picking up a yellow card in the previous match. His leadership and defensive intelligence will be sorely missed, especially against a potent attacking side like Ajax.
Ajax: Tactical Approach and Current Form
Ajax, on the other hand, has been in impressive form, having won four of their last five matches. They are currently in the hunt for a top-three finish, with eyes set on securing a return to the Champions League. Ajax typically sets up in a 4-3-3 formation, with an emphasis on high pressing and possession-based play. Their tactical philosophy remains rooted in the high tempo and fluid movement that has defined their style for years, with a strong emphasis on building from the back. Ajax's ability to dominate possession (averaging 65%) and create space through quick, short passes is a hallmark of their system.
Ajax’s impressive statistics include an xG (expected goals) of 2.0 per game, underscoring their potency in front of goal. Their pressing game is one of the best in the league, with an average of 16.5 high pressing actions per 90 minutes. This allows them to win the ball high up the pitch and quickly transition into offensive positions. Their high pressing game forces turnovers in dangerous areas, and with attacking players like Dusan Tadic and Mohammed Kudus, Ajax is lethal when exploiting these opportunities.
Key to Ajax’s success is the combination of Tadic’s vision and Kudus’ pace. Tadic, the creative force in the midfield, often pulls strings from deeper positions, while Kudus provides the directness and cutting edge in the final third. The recent form of Kudus is particularly exciting, as he has been in scintillating goal-scoring form, with three goals in the last four matches. Ajax will also benefit from the return of Daley Blind, who adds composure to their defense and helps facilitate the build-up play from the back. However, Ajax will be without central defender Jurrien Timber, who is sidelined due to injury. His absence leaves a gap in their defensive line that could be exposed by Excelsior’s direct play.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The recent head-to-head record between these two teams heavily favors Ajax, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters. In their most recent meeting earlier this season, Ajax triumphed 3-1 at the Johan Cruijff Arena, with Tadic scoring a brace and Excelsior’s sole goal coming from a late header. Historically, Excelsior has struggled to match Ajax’s attacking firepower, often finding themselves overrun in midfield and overwhelmed by Ajax's dynamic wingers. However, Excelsior has caused problems for Ajax in previous seasons by adopting a disciplined and physical approach, sometimes frustrating Ajax's fluid attacking play.
The psychological edge here belongs to Ajax, who know that any slip-up could damage their chances of reaching the top three, while Excelsior's survival instinct will fuel their resolve. That said, Ajax’s away form has been slightly more unpredictable, and their defensive vulnerabilities—particularly without Timber—could be exposed if Excelsior can capitalize on transitions.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
One of the key battles in this match will take place in the wide areas. Excelsior’s wingers, particularly Grot, will look to exploit the space behind Ajax’s full-backs, who often push high up the pitch to support the attack. This is where Excelsior’s counter-attacking style could prove decisive. If they can stretch Ajax’s defense, they may find success with quick balls over the top or cutbacks from the byline.
In midfield, the battle between Excelsior’s defensive midfielder, Kees Kwakman, and Ajax’s Davy Klaassen will be crucial. Kwakman will need to disrupt Ajax’s build-up play and break up their high pressing game, while Klaassen’s movement and ability to arrive late into the box could be a key factor in Ajax’s offensive play. Klaassen’s link-up play with Tadic will be critical in maintaining possession and unlocking Excelsior’s defense.
Match Scenario and Prediction
This match will likely follow a predictable pattern: Ajax will dominate possession and push Excelsior deep into their own half. However, Excelsior will look to hit Ajax on the counter, using their speed on the wings and set pieces to create chances. Ajax will have to deal with Excelsior’s direct play, but their superior technical quality and pressing game should give them the edge in most key moments.
Given the disparity in squad quality, Ajax will be heavy favorites, but Excelsior's home advantage and desperation to avoid relegation could inject some unpredictability into the fixture. I expect Ajax to win, but it will not be a walkover. Excelsior’s resilience and counter-attacking threats could see them score, but Ajax’s attacking depth will likely see them over the line in the end.
Prediction: Ajax 3-1 Excelsior
Key Metrics: Ajax to dominate possession (65%), expect 10-12 shots on target, and a strong pressing performance. Excelsior will rely on counter-attacks and set pieces, averaging 4 corners in this fixture.
Final Thoughts
This match will answer an important question: Can Ajax overcome their defensive vulnerabilities without Timber and secure a crucial away win? With both teams highly motivated for very different reasons, the match promises drama, intensity, and tactical intrigue. Ajax’s attacking power will be tested by Excelsior’s defensive resilience, but in the end, it is likely the superior depth and quality of Ajax that will prevail.
