AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen on 31 January
On January 31st, AZ Alkmaar will face NEC Nijmegen in an Eredivisie clash that promises to be a highly tactical battle between two teams with contrasting styles. This match is crucial for both clubs, with AZ Alkmaar seeking to strengthen their position in the race for European spots, while NEC Nijmegen will look to distance themselves from the relegation zone. The game will take place at the AFAS Stadion, where the home side will aim to capitalize on their excellent form at home. With both teams in need of points, expect an intense contest with significant implications for the rest of the season.
AZ Alkmaar: Tactical Approach and Current Form
AZ Alkmaar have been in formidable form recently, winning four of their last five Eredivisie fixtures, with their only defeat coming against Ajax in a tight encounter. The team has been characterized by their dynamic and fluid tactical setup, employing a 4-2-3-1 formation under the guidance of manager Pascal Jansen. The key feature of their play has been their quick transitions and high pressing game, aiming to win the ball back in advanced positions and exploit any defensive vulnerabilities quickly. Their impressive xG (expected goals) metric stands at 1.8 per match, underlining their efficiency in front of goal.
AZ’s attacking play revolves around the creative presence of midfielder Vangelis Pavlidis, who has been in scintillating form this season, with 10 goals and 4 assists in the league. The partnership between him and winger Jesper Karlsson, who boasts a high dribbling success rate (60%) and has contributed 5 goals and 6 assists, is a constant threat. Karlsson's ability to isolate defenders and create space in the final third will be key in breaking down NEC’s defensive lines.
However, AZ will miss the services of captain Teun Koopmeiners in the midfield due to a minor injury. His absence could potentially disrupt the team’s rhythm, as Koopmeiners has been instrumental in dictating the tempo and linking up play from deep. Nevertheless, the depth of AZ's squad means they are still capable of adjusting their approach, with Jordy Clasie and Yukinari Sugawara stepping in to maintain control in the center of the park.
NEC Nijmegen: Tactical Approach and Current Form
NEC Nijmegen, on the other hand, have had a less impressive run, securing just two wins from their last five matches. Despite this, they will approach the game with determination, knowing that survival in the Eredivisie is their primary objective this season. Manager Rogier Meijer typically sets his team up in a 4-3-3 formation, relying on a compact defensive shape and attempting to hit teams on the counter-attack. This tactical setup aims to frustrate the opposition by limiting space in central areas and forcing long passes or mistakes. While they have the second-lowest xG in the league (1.1), their pragmatic approach could make them dangerous on the break, especially if they can feed their talismanic striker, Landry Dimata, who has been involved in 40% of their goals this season.
NEC’s style contrasts sharply with AZ’s high pressing and possession dominance. The team tends to sit deep and frustrate their opponents, often conceding the lion's share of possession but looking to strike on the counter. Their counter-attacking ability will be crucial in this match, as AZ’s defensive line can sometimes be caught out of shape when they push forward. With the pace of Dimata and the creativity of midfielder Ibrahim Cissé, NEC will likely look to exploit any space left behind by the attacking-minded full-backs of AZ.
One player that will be pivotal to NEC’s fortunes is goalkeeper Mattijs Branderhorst, whose shot-stopping ability will be tested repeatedly. He has been in excellent form this season, with a save percentage of 77%, making him a reliable last line of defense. However, NEC will have to contend with an injury concern in their defense, as central defender Navarone Foor is doubtful for the match, and his potential absence could lead to defensive instability.
Head-to-Head: History and Psychology
The recent head-to-head record between these two teams favors AZ Alkmaar, with the home side winning 4 of their last 5 encounters against NEC. Their most recent meeting earlier this season ended in a 3-1 victory for AZ, with goals from Pavlidis and Karlsson proving decisive. Historically, AZ have dominated this fixture, with NEC failing to win any of their last 10 visits to the AFAS Stadion. This psychological edge will be crucial for AZ, who will be confident in maintaining their winning streak at home.
However, NEC will draw motivation from their strong defensive showing in recent games, where they managed to hold high-scoring teams like PSV to a 1-1 draw. The resilience and organization displayed by Meijer’s side could serve them well against a potent AZ attack, even if they enter the match as underdogs.
Key Battles and Critical Zones
One of the most exciting matchups to watch will be the battle between AZ’s attacking full-back Yukinari Sugawara and NEC’s winger Johan Bakayoko. Sugawara’s overlapping runs have been a key feature of AZ’s attacking play, but Bakayoko’s pace and dribbling ability could exploit the space left behind if the full-back ventures too far forward. This duel will likely decide who gains the upper hand in wide areas and whether AZ’s full-backs can provide enough support to their wingers while maintaining defensive solidity.
In midfield, the battle between AZ’s Jordy Clasie and NEC’s Ibrahim Cissé will be crucial. Clasie’s passing range and vision are central to AZ’s buildup play, while Cissé’s energy and ball-winning ability will be key in disrupting that flow. The outcome of this contest could determine which team dominates possession and controls the tempo of the game.
Match Scenario and Prediction
Given the contrasting styles of play, the most likely scenario will see AZ Alkmaar controlling possession, with NEC looking to frustrate them through a disciplined defensive shape and counter-attacking threats. AZ’s ability to break down a low block will be tested, and if they can exploit the space behind NEC’s defense, they should be able to come out on top. However, if NEC can withstand the early pressure and catch AZ on the break, they could cause an upset.
In terms of statistics, AZ will dominate possession, likely surpassing 60%, with their pressing game pushing NEC to play long balls or take fewer risks in possession. Expect AZ to register more than 10 shots, with a couple of them testing Branderhorst in goal. NEC, however, will remain dangerous on the counter and will need to capitalize on their chances if they are to take anything from the match.
Final score prediction: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 NEC Nijmegen. AZ’s attacking depth should prove too much for NEC to handle, especially without Foor in defense. However, the visitors will put up a strong fight and may cause AZ some nervy moments.
Final Thoughts
This match will answer whether AZ Alkmaar’s attacking prowess can break down a resolute and compact NEC defense. With both teams having contrasting motivations and styles, it promises to be a clash of wills. Can AZ maintain their strong home form, or will NEC’s defensive discipline earn them a point? All eyes will be on this Eredivisie fixture, where every moment will be crucial in the battle for European football and survival.
